Anticipating impacts: using large‑scale scenario‑writing to explore diverse implications of generative AI in the news environment
Abstract
The tremendous rise of generative AI has reached every part of society—including the news environment. There are many
concerns about the individual and societal impact of the increasing use of generative AI, including issues such as disinformation and misinformation, discrimination, and the promotion of social tensions. However, research on anticipating the
impact of generative AI is still in its infancy and mostly limited to the views of technology developers and/or researchers.
In this paper, we aim to broaden the perspective and capture the expectations of three stakeholder groups (news consumers;
technology developers; content creators) about the potential negative impacts of generative AI, as well as mitigation strategies to address these. Methodologically, we apply scenario-writing and use participatory foresight in the context of a survey
(n=119) to delve into cognitively diverse imaginations of the future. We qualitatively analyze the scenarios using thematic
analysis to systematically map potential impacts of generative AI on the news environment, potential mitigation strategies,
and the role of stakeholders in causing and mitigating these impacts. In addition, we measure respondents' opinions on a
specifc mitigation strategy, namely transparency obligations as suggested in Article 52 of the draft EU AI Act. We compare
the results across diferent stakeholder groups and elaborate on diferent expected impacts across these groups. We conclude
by discussing the usefulness of scenario-writing and participatory foresight as a toolbox for generative AI impact assessment.
Links
Generative AI
Bibtex
article{nokey,
title = {Anticipating impacts: using large‑scale scenario‑writing to explore diverse implications of generative AI in the news environment},
author = {Kieslich, K. and Diakopoulos, N. and Helberger, N.},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s43681-024-00497-4},
year = {2024},
date = {2024-05-27},
journal = {AI and Ethics},
abstract = {The tremendous rise of generative AI has reached every part of society—including the news environment. There are many
concerns about the individual and societal impact of the increasing use of generative AI, including issues such as disinformation and misinformation, discrimination, and the promotion of social tensions. However, research on anticipating the
impact of generative AI is still in its infancy and mostly limited to the views of technology developers and/or researchers.
In this paper, we aim to broaden the perspective and capture the expectations of three stakeholder groups (news consumers;
technology developers; content creators) about the potential negative impacts of generative AI, as well as mitigation strategies to address these. Methodologically, we apply scenario-writing and use participatory foresight in the context of a survey
(n=119) to delve into cognitively diverse imaginations of the future. We qualitatively analyze the scenarios using thematic
analysis to systematically map potential impacts of generative AI on the news environment, potential mitigation strategies,
and the role of stakeholders in causing and mitigating these impacts. In addition, we measure respondents\' opinions on a
specifc mitigation strategy, namely transparency obligations as suggested in Article 52 of the draft EU AI Act. We compare
the results across diferent stakeholder groups and elaborate on diferent expected impacts across these groups. We conclude
by discussing the usefulness of scenario-writing and participatory foresight as a toolbox for generative AI impact assessment.},
keywords = {Generative AI},
}